(UPDATED 01–19–10)
Recall the prevailing investor sentiment from this time last year …
U.S. stocks had been in strong decline for more than a year. Some of the most celebrated bulls had turned into bears, and the few bears that did exist before the downturn had become even more bearish. The Daily Sentiment Index for the S&P registered an astonishing 3 percent bulls — virtually no one was betting on the upside — and the bleakest of forecasts for 2009 called for nothing short of financial apocalypse.
Contrarian analyst Robert Prechter took the opposite side of the trade. Prechter, a long-time bear, emerged as a solitary bullish voice among overwhelming bearishness. After closing out a record short recommendation that gained 800 downside points in the S&P, he issued the following bullish warning to bears:
“The market is compressed, and when it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short.”
In the following days, the mainstream media reported that “perma-bear” Robert Prechter had turned bullish — the reports were only half true. Prechter had, in fact, turned intermediate-term bullish, but he stopped short of recommending average investors to jump back in. Why?
Prechter saw something on the horizon that the shortsighted mainstream market watchers did not, which brings me to the untold portion of this story …
In Prechter’s eyes, the bear market is far from over, and what he expects to happen after the current rally ends is significantly important to how you position your portfolio now.
Robert Prechter’s free 2010 Report here.
UPDATE – Added info from post by Nico Isaac of Elliott Wave:
In the realm of market psychology, there’s a big difference between optimism and extreme optimism. The first is seeing the glass half full. The second is seeing the glass half full deep in the heart of a bone-dry desert. In finance, it’s what we call “Buying the Dip” mentality — when all outcomes, even losses, are cause for celebration.
We are there now.
Recent news items:
“The horrible decade has wiped out all the excesses of the previous two decades and put us back on track for more normal returns.” (USA Today) — AND — “It may be the best of all possible worlds.” (Business News)
Back in the late 1990s, when the “unstoppable” NASDAQ began to experience regular days of double-digit drops, it was “Buy-the-Dip.” Now, it’s “buy the entire lost decade.” And, as the Dec.31, 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast Short Term Update reveals — current sentiment readings “continue to show that stock market bears have packed up and moved to Florida for the winter.”
The Dec. 31 Short Term Update also reveals two mind-blowing charts of the S&P 500 versus Investor Intelligence Advisors Survey Percentage of Bears — AND, the S&P 500 versus the percentage of “Fully Committed” bullish advisors since 2000. The current reading is the lowest bearish percentage in 22 years.
Take one look at the evidence, and you’ll see that a defining pattern emerges: Low levels of bearishness have consistently coincided with one kind of market move. Combine this picture with the other measures of investor sentiment like momentum, volume and Elliott wave structure, and the evidence tilts overwhelmingly in favor of an unforgettable year.
You can get Robert Prechter’s free 2010 Elliott Wave Report here.
Related posts:
2010 Stock Market – Google News
